We have earlier blogged about Igar Panarin, a respected Russian scholar, who has been saying that just as the collapse of communism resulted in the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the current collapse of capitalism will mean the dissolution of the United States. Here is his latest:
If you’re inclined to believe Igor Panarin, and the Kremlin wouldn’t mind if you did, then President Barack Obama will order martial law this year, the U.S. will split into six rump-states before 2011, and Russia and China will become the backbones of a new world order.
Panarin might be easy to ignore but for the fact that he is a dean at the Foreign Ministry’s school for future diplomats and a regular on Russia’s state-guided TV channels. And his predictions fit into the anti-American story line of the Kremlin leadership.
“There is a high probability that the collapse of the United States will occur by 2010,” Panarin told dozens of students, professors and diplomats Tuesday at the Diplomatic Academy—a lecture the ministry pointedly invited The Associated Press and other foreign media to attend. . . .
He said the recent economic turmoil in the U.S. and other “social and cultural phenomena” led him to nail down a specific timeframe for “The End”—when the United States will break up into six autonomous regions and Alaska will revert to Russian control.
Panarin argued that Americans are in moral decline, saying their great psychological stress is evident from school shootings, the size of the prison population and the number of gay men.
Turning to economic woes, he cited the slide in major stock indexes, the decline in U.S. gross domestic product and Washington’s bailout of banking giant Citigroup as evidence that American dominance of global markets has collapsed.
“I was there recently and things are far from good,” he said. “What’s happened is the collapse of the American dream.”
Martial law THIS YEAR? The dissolution of the country NEXT YEAR? I think he is indulging in projection and wishful thinking, assuming that the American union is no different qualitatively from the Soviet union. But I wonder what the end of America would look like. Surely not what he says, with Mexico taking the Southwest, the North joining Canada, China taking the West Coast, etc. But what would it be like if America–like other great nations–would someday cease to exist? Reversion to state and local governments, or a massive Empire that repudiates the Constitution?
{ 17 comments… read them below or add one }
I think reversion to state control is much more likely. There are several mature secessionist movements in the US that would be able to capitalize on a fissuring of the Union. Also, we have state gov’ts in place that are not dependant on the Union for their legitimacy. They may band together for certain issues but I don’t think Igor is correct that we would all just happily join our neighboring countries.
The first time I heard of old Igor, I just wrote him off as a nut-bag. but that 11 States have introduced resolutions in their legislators reasserting their sovergnty under the 9th and 10th Amendments to the U.S. Constitution, I wonder ….
Not with a bang but a whimper.
I can see the break-up into states or regions as a possibility, but what I think more likely is a Roman (Julius Caesar) scenario–the system breaks down to the point where some charismatic leader on a white horse shows up to re-invent the system on efficient, fascist lines. This figure could come from either the left or right.
“The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised.” – George Will
Have you read David Aikman’s book, “When the Almond Tree Blossoms” (currently available for $0.01 on Amazon)? He has the US breaking into two “nations” after riots in the major cities over economic issues and a surrender in the Middle East after military action following on after the Gulf War in the early ’90s. Set in 1998, the “People’s Movement” controls the east coast and major cities into the midwest and the front range of the Rockies, while the “Constitutionalists” control most of the west — except California — and Hawaii. The pivot point is whether the submarines with nuclear weapons are still under Constitutionalist control, or if they whether they have been destroyed by the Russians (fascist) or surrendered. Great read, and when I reread it last fall I thought he was about 10 years early.
I hope our State Department and intelligence community have a really good feel for whether or not the Russians (Putin, Medvedev, et al) actually believe this stuff.
Because if they do, we can be certain that they’ll have no interest in making (or keeping to) any long-term agreements with us, and will in fact act internationally in ways that assume the US will not long have power or influence to use against them.
As sad as it makes me to say this. I have thought our days as one country have been coming to an end. Every new leader to emerge has ran on a platform of unity and change(e.g. George w and Obama) however things are more polarized as time passes. As I listen to local people talk and the national media speak it has became apparent to me that there are greatly conflicting views of what America is and what it should be.
Our people are much greater than our government, and there is still a tremendous reservoir of patriotism for this nation in many parts of the country. A few years ago, I could not have imagined the demise of the U.S. Now, sadly, I can. But I think it is many years off. Watch the current tea party movement. Our government is moving so swiftly toward the hard left that there is a reaction building. Interesting times are ahead.
Ahhh, I see its Good News Friday. Will I still own my home? Bank accounts? What would that mean in real terms? Minnesota would go with Canada, for sure. Too bad we sold my grandparents home across the border. Geez, I’d better double-check my dual citizenship with Canada (my father was a Canadian when I was born). So much to do….
In the famous words of The Outlaw Josey Wales (aka Clint Eastwood, spittin’ tobacco): “Governments don’t live together. People live together. Governments, you don’t always get a fair word and a fair fight. Well, I’ve come here to give you either one, or get either one from you…”
Silver-faced Indian chief: “So will it be.”
Josey Wales: “I reckon so.”
I wouldn’t be too impressed with this Russian. I doubt he even understands the deep resolve of his own people, or if he does, he doesn’t understand that that resolve also resides in the hearts of most Americans. Besides, I have people all over the country, and so do you. How’s that going to work?
Meanwhile, I’m keeping an eye on firearms and tobacco sales, heheh.
Bruce Gee,
Don’t forget why the Indian Cheif believes Josey:
“there is iron in your word of death for all Comanche to see. And so there is iron in your words of life.”
Scott@5: David Aikman is my colleague here at Patrick Henry College! He’s teaching history. I didn’t know he wrote anything so interesting!
I’ve been meaning to read his fiction, so thanks for the tip.
No matter what may come, we are in for bad times. Old Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times.
Over the long run we are probably involved in the decline of Western civilization, mainly due to in Toynbee’s term a classic implosion of confidence and belief, in this case both in our Judeo/Christian religion and Greek reason. However, given the depth of the Christian religion and Greek reason, one cannot rule out a resurgence.
At any rate, this present economic crisis will prove ephemeral and once again Russia will be bewildered by our inherent political and economic strength. Russia is after all a half breed Western nation with the other half being a fatalistic and autocratic Eastern nation; Russia is a rather confused nation with probably its heart in the East.
The USA has no serious ethnic and regional hatreds. Certainly nothing on the scale of what Igor knows from the former Soviet Union, with Russians, Georgians, Ukrainians, and Chechens hating each other and each wanting its own country. I agree with Lars and the Julius Caesar precedent. There has been a lot of ink spilled looking at the Fall of the Roman Empire and parallels with today. We would do much better to study the Fall of the Roman Republic. A beautiful system of law, rights, voting, freedom, representatation, and balance of power that lasted 600 years–a lot longer than ours–came apart due to the corruption of voters, power-mad politicians, economic disarray, and manipulation of the masses. Julius Caesar rode in on a white horse to put things to right and the people voluntarily gave up their liberties for a succession of deified Emperors.
I remember a few years ago in Credenda Agenda, our good Idaho Reformed friends (Doug Wilson et. al) predicted the break up of these United States within 50 years.
OTOH, I have always been deeply impressed with the resolve and practical nature of Americans in the face of great need and deprivation. I can only assume that that same character still resides within us, and only needs the proper historic times to call it forth.
I believe that Igor Panarin could be engaging in “psychological warfare” by making such statements. In other words by putting this idea out there, he and others are hoping that in a climate of economic upheaval such comments might take root and accomplish there goals- even it it does not play out exactly as described and in the same time table. The Russians are chess players.