Michael Barone gives a state-by-state breakdown of abortion rates. He concludes that there is a pretty strong correlation between the way a state votes and its abortion rates, with liberal states having lots of abortions and conservative states having fewer. That may seem obvious, and yet other correlations break down, with conservative states often having higher divorce rates than liberal states:
Roe v. Wade imposed the same legal abortion regime on the entire nation and made abortion a national political issue. Yet Americans in different regions and states have in effect established very different behavioral abortion regimes. Abortion is very common in New York (abortion rate of 38.2) and New Jersey (34.3), only about half as common in Illinois (18.9) and Texas (17.3), and lower in South Carolina (7.9) and Utah (6.4). Cultural liberals have noted that divorce rates are relatively low in some politically liberal states like Massachusetts and relatively high in some politically conservative states like Oklahoma. But abortion rates seem highly correlated with cultural attitudes and with, at least during the time that abortion has been a major political issue, voting behavior.
What are we to conclude from this? That abortion makes for happier marriages? That divorced women are refusing to get abortions? Or what?
HT: Joe Carter
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Perhaps there is no correlation between abortion and divorce. Maybe those who would consider abortion as an option are also those who choose not to marry at all? No marriage, no divorce. Perhaps those who would never consider abortion as an option would not be opposed to divorce because they would not see them as being on the same level.
Actually, when you measure divorce rates in terms of the number of people actually getting married, the “blue” states have a higher divorce rate than the “red.” I looked at a comparison of New England divorce rates vs. those of Arkansas (heart of the “divorce belt” according to some), and this was the results:
Divorces per thousand adults: 4.2 for New England, 6.5 or so for Arkansas. Looks pretty bad, right?
Now let’s consider the number or marriages contracted per thousand people: 8 per thousand for New England, 16 for Arkansas.
In other words, when you measure divorce in terms of divorces per number of people actually getting married, New England’s effective divorce rate of 55% dwarfs Arkansas’ of 35% or so.
Not that 35% divorce rate is anything to brag about, but those who lament how badly Christians are doing regarding marriage have regrettably chosen the wrong units.
(numbers were provided by Mike Huckabee’s initiative to prevent divorce back when he was governor)
Could it be that religious and conservative folks, ashamed of getting an abortion, and yet getting the abortion BECAUSE they would be even MORE ashamed at what their fellow church goers would think about an unwed pregnancy,go to a place far from home to have that abortion? maybe a “liberal” state or larger metropolitan area where no one knows them or will pass by the abortion clinic as they enter?
I have known way too many young girls in college with devout roman catholic parents who urge them to abort and put alot of pressure on them to do so. sad isn´t it?
we do what is right often only because people are watching. and this false morality can play out in devastating ways.
I was going to say exactly what Bike Bubba said. First of all, linking abortion rates to marriage rates doesn’t make any sense, since the population overlap isn’t that large (most abortions are performed on single women). Secondly, as Bike Bubba pointed out, you need to correllate divorce rates as a percentage of total population to marriage rates as a percentage of total population. And when you do, the disparity in divorce rates between blue and red states disappears, and actually shifts toward a lower overall rate in red states. This makes sense. In New York, many couples just don’t bother to marry, so when they later split up it doesn’t count as a divorce. In Arkansas, cohabitation isn’t as socially accepted, so more couples marry.
Frank, interesting thought, but I’d guess that if that were true, abortion practicioners would be trumpeting the data. Fact of the matter is that the wicked deed can be done in most any town that has a D1-A football team without people knowing any better, and not too many people outside of the Dakotas or Alaska are very far from one of those.
Don makes a good point as well; given that most prenatal infanticides are perpetrated on single women, why would a correlation between abortion and divorce make any sense to begin with? Moreover, the ultimate reality–when you use the right units–is that when you have more abortions, you also have more marriage and other breakups. The breakup rate for couples who abort their children is something like 2/3 within a year or two of aborting.
are we saying then that the answer to sin is republicanism? and that voting democratic tends to happen among those who are less moral? REAL christians tend to be republican? this is just too wierd…
I think we conclude that we can conclude nothing without seeing the survey methods and even then…. there are LOTS of sinners in south dakota. just not as many because most people have better sense than to live there….. hehehehe.
Not Republicanism, as that would include Dede Scozzawhatever in New York. Jesusfreakism appears to help a lot, though.
Bike,
Not sure where or how you are getting / doing math but the rates you are using do not seem to correlate with the numbers others are using – including the US Government.
The US Census data is published here –
http://www.divorcemag.com/statistics/statsUS.shtml and they are easily findable elsewhere too.
Hint – Arkansas is #2 only to Nevada
New England is not really a state as you know – but the rates from state that are states are about 1/3rd the rate or less.
Scott @ 8: Did you read the thread before you commented? The article you referenced is citing the divorce rate per 1,000 people. What Bike was saying was that it is more accurate to look at the divorce rate per 1,000 marriages. The marriage rate in New England is much lower than that in Arkansas, for example. If you shack up for eight years, without getting married, and then break up, it doesn’t count as a divorce.