Today is Super Tuesday, when 10 states hold their presidential primaries and caucuses all on the same day, delivering over 400 delegates (nearly 18% of them all).
The states and their number of delegates are as follows: Georgia (76), Idaho (32), Massachusetts (41), North Dakota (28), Ohio (66), Oklahoma (43), Tennessee (58), Vermont (17), and Virginia (49), and Alaska (27).
We will learn at the end of the day whether the Republican contenders will keep slugging it out or if Mitt Romney makes himself inevitable once again.
My impression is that lots of Republicans who aren’t big fans of Romney are wanting these primary competitions to just be over. The candidates are tearing each other apart, making them all less popular in the general public and making Barack Obama’s re-election campaign all the easier. As a result, many Republicans are willing to settle.
Then again, Super Tuesday has so many varied states that Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul may pick enough delegates to allow the carnage to continue. And if Romney continues to be unable to “put it away,” the claim that he is “electable” will lose more and more credibility, perhaps opening the nomination to someone else.
What do you think will happen?
And thanks, by the way, for your counsel on whether I should vote for Romney or Paul, the only two candidates on the ballot here in Virginia. I think my way is clear.
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a decisive victory for Romney
Virginia will be the most interesting to date to watch. Not because of who is not on the ballet but who is, Paul and Romney. It’s the closest to a ‘snap shot’ one might get for how much support Paul actually has when the “other conservative doors” are closed. I suspect if he, Paul, even does moderately well, he may run third party.
I’m predicting a mixed bag, but with Romney coming out with the majority of delegates. The campaigning will continue, but Romney will continue as the definite front runner, though not as the locked-in, inevitable candidate he would like to be.
larry – nope. Ron Paul has categorically stated many, many times for many years that he is not going to run third party.
The big question is – if Romney wins and then loses, will the Republican Establishment resign en masse? Doubtful. If they can botch the gift of Obama and fail to win, the Republican Party deserves to die and fade into the oblivion its poohbahs have embraced.
I am so sick of all this political stuff.
You’d think these folks were actually going to save us.
What a joke.
Paul said again this morning that he would not go third party, that he would be loyal to GOP regardless of the outcome.
He also said that there basically isn’t any difference between the candidates including himself on the conservative policies–that the only difference was that he, Paul, had no special interest group behind him to sway him, whereas all the others did.
So why stay in it at this point?
Steve – the biggest impact Paul can have is at the convention. Not because of the possibility of a brokered convention. He needs to keep collecting delegates for two reasons:
1. to get a large proxy seat on the platform committee that will shape the goals and policies of the party going forward. This might not sound sexy or even that important but the platform is useful to in congressional elections and even state elections to hold politicians feet to the fire. I have seen it used quite effectively in persuading waffling members to vote the right way on legislation. It also gives credibility to efforts to run primary candidates against RINOs.
2. To force the establishment to let him or his proxy address the convention. As we all know a speech can be a powerful tool to a movement. Think of Reagan’s’ 1964 convention speech and the impact it had on the conservative movement.
oops – that comment was a response to Jon @ 6, not Steve.
Jon, do you not think he is staying in to try to influence the Republican party back to seeking smaller, more constitutional government, more conservative fiscal policy, and more humble foreign policy? That’s why I’m going to vote for him — electable or no — the Republican party needs to hear that message.
Gingrich should win Georgia, and Santorum and Romney are statistically tied in Ohio. The problem for Santorum is that his lack of organization caused him to not be qualified to win delegates in some Ohio congressional districts, so even if he were to win the popular vote in Ohio he probably would still lose in the delegate count. Romney is expected to win most or all of the other states.
At the end of the day, Romney will not have clinched, but will have demonstrated that his nomination is inevitable. Hopefully, he will somehow come to understand, as he moves toward being the Republican standard-bearer this fall, what is wrong with our present course, and the role he will have in trying to preserve our individual liberties.
Webmonk,
Perhaps not, but I tend to not take politicians “categorical statements” quiet as categorical as I might the average person. I really don’t care if he does or doesn’t personally, just an observation.
Whether he does or does not I don’t think changes the outcome of 2012 election as it is inevitablly aligning. Conservatives have in a way shot themselves in the foot on this election cycle; all of them saying basically “I’m Reagan & he/she’s not” so much that they will have only left themselves with a more moral verson of Bill Clinton to vote for when all is said and done.
As a Santorum supporter, I believe that he needs to win Ohio, Tennessee, and Oklahoma in order to remain legitimately viable going forward. Losing Ohio would undermine his Rust Belt rationale, and losing Tenneseee and/or Oklahoma would call into question his ability to compete in the South.
If Romney wins all three of these, or even just the first two, then the race is effectively over; and as I have said all along, I am fine with that outcome. I think that Romney has become a much better candidate for having gone toe-to-toe with Perry, Gingrich, and Santorum over the course of the campaign. I still do not like him personally, but I think that he can get the job done.
America loses no matter who wins tonight or in November.
There are two significant issues (IMO) in the Republican primaries on which I’ve seen little reported:
1. The effect of Democrat voters crossing over (where allowed);
2. The differences between the Republican candidates GOP women vote for and the candidates GOP men vote for.
The second issue is probably more significant in determining who will be the GOP nominee.
Carl, @14, I agree with the second of your 2 points. I’m interested in how you see differences between male/female voting patterns affecting the eventual nomination, and particularly who you think GOP women are predisposed to support. Are you aware of any polls which shed light on this aspect of the race?
Gary @15: According to the news last night from Ohio, the GOP women were voting for Romney.
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